Monday, September 30, 2013

Something to Watch

For the past two weeks, things have been quiet in the Caribbean. Now there is a low with a large area of disorganized thunderstorms south of Jamaica as shown in the graphic below. This system is moving slowly northwest. It remains disorganized with no sign of rotation. Further development, if any, will be slow.


Sunday, September 15, 2013

Mexico Getting Hit on Both Sides

Out in the Atlantic, northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, the remnant of Tropical Storm Humberto has degenerated and is no longer a proper cyclone, The system still has plenty of energy and is still rotating but at present is only making tropical force winds in one quadrant. It is moving west and conditions are good for regeneration into a cyclone but this system is too far north to be of concern to the Caribbean.

In the Gulf of Mexico, Ingrid has moved north and has become a hurricane making 65 knot winds. Hurricane warnings are up from Cabo Rojo to La Pesca. Hurricane Ingrid may strengthen a bit more before coming ashore tomorrow. Ten to fifteen inches of rain may fall over much of eastern Mexico.

On the Pacific side, Tropical Storm Manuel is coming ashore near Manzanillo bringing heavy rain and the chance of flooding and mud slides. Manuel is making 55 knot winds.

The graphic below shows the tropical wind probabilities for Manuel and Ingrid.


Google Doodle for Día de Independencia 2013


Saturday, September 14, 2013

A Surprise in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Humberto is weakening as it moves north. In fact Humberto was just downgraded to an post-tropical cyclone with winds less than 35 knots.

Off the Pacific coast of Mexico we have a new tropical storm, Manuel, shown in the second graphic below. Tropical Storm Manuel is making 45 knot winds and is moving north.

The surprise is Tropical Storm Ingrid. Ingrid was expected to move ashore and weaken but this cyclone stalled over warm Gulf water and in a pretty good environment for development. Ingrid is almost a hurricane, now making 60 knot winds. This system was moving west towards the Mexican coast but has now changed direction. Ingrid is now moving north at 8 mph, so we haven't heard the last of this one by any means. Ingrid is expected to bring very heavy rain, on the order of 10 to 15 inches, to eastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm (almost hurricane) Ingrid:
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES



Wednesday, September 11, 2013

All As Expected

Weather in the Atlantic is developing as forecast in the previous post. Hurricane Humberto has become the first hurricane of this season in the eastern Atlantic. Humberto is making 75 MPH winds and appears to have already made its turn to the right, now heading NNW, so it is no longer of any concern to those in the Caribbean.  Gabrielle remains steady and is dropping lots of rain on Bermuda.

The large region of thunderstorms east of Belize continues as expected. It should move over land today bringing heavy rain and some wind to Belize, Eastern Guatemala, and the Yucatan. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche, conditions should be good for probable development into a cyclone.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

More Rain for Eastern Guatemala

Three areas of of interest are active in the Atlantic, as shown in the graphic below.  TS Gabrielle is making 35 kt winds and is moving north, so is of no concern to the Caribbean. TS Humberto is almost a hurricane and is strengthening. It's expected to become a hurricane later today. Humberto is moving WNW and could become a dangerous hurricane if it doesn't turn north before reaching the Caribbean.

In the Northwest Caribbean there's a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. This system is moving west and is not expected to develop significantly before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. After crossing the Yucatan and reaching the Gulf of Mexico, development into a cyclone is probable. While crossing the peninsula, this system should bring rain and thunderstorms to Northern Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan.


Thursday, September 5, 2013

There's plenty of activity in the Atlantic right now but none of it is strong.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is making 35 knot winds and is generating large amounts of rain as it moves slowly northwest across Hispaniola. Gabrielle is rotating but is disorganized. Development, if any, should be slow and hampered by moving across the island.

To the east of Gabrielle is a large area of disorganized thunderstorms whose development is hindered by proximity to TS Gabrielle.

In the Gulf of Mexico there is a low pressure trough that could strengthen a little before it moves over mainland Mexico. For now, this system is bringing rainshowers to the Yucatan, Mexico, and parts of Central America.

West of the Cape Verde Islands is another region of disorganized thunderstorms but development is unlikely. In another day or so, environmental conditions will become very poor for development.