Friday, August 16, 2013

No Rotation Yet

The region of disorganized thunderstorms in the western Caribbean, discussed in the preceding posts, continues moving northwest and has not yet developed any rotation. The heavy rains of the system occur in the east and northeast quarters of the system, therefore, the heaviest rains missed Belize and Guatemala, most of it falling at sea. However, the Yucatan is receiving some heavy rain from this system.

Development of this system depends on what direction it moves. If it moves more towards the west it has little or no chance to develop. If it moves north it has a better chance to develop but any development should be slow.

The system that formed south of the Cape Verde Islands became a Tropical Storm Erin but has since weakened and lost organization, and is now a tropical depression.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Further Development is Happening

The disturbance discussed in my previous post is developing further. It continues to move northwest towards the Yucatan. A distinct low is developing in the center of the highlighted region north of Honduras and upper level winds are favorable for additional development. NHC now gives a 50% chance that this system develops into a cyclone within the next three days and a 60% chance in the next five days. Folks in Belize, the Yucatan, and around the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this system.

The second system shown on the graphic, south of the Cape Verde Islands, has a high chance of development.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Tropical Disturbance East of Honduras

The region east of Honduras currently harbors some interesting conditions. There is a broad area of low pressure combined with a tropical wave.  This is resulting in showers and thundershowers.  Conditions for development are expected to improve so this areas bears watching as it moves slowly to the northwest toward the Yucatan.  Coincidentally, this is the same area where Hurricane Mitch formed.  The NHC is giving this system a 30% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

To learn more about hurricanes see Hurricane Basics