Monday, July 29, 2013

Disturbance North of Puerto Rico

The remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian now form a region of disorganized thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.  There's no closed circulation and conditions are not very good for development. Some of the t-storms are generating winds up to gale force.  A hurricane reconnaisance aircraft may be sent this afternoon to examine the area more closely.  NHC forecasts the chance of this system becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours at less than 50%.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Remnant of Chantal Still Storming

Tropical Storm Chantal lost circulation and degenerated into a surface trough but continues to produce thunderstorms and locally strong winds. Conditions are not bad for redevelopment and there is a 30 percent chance that Chantal comes back to life. The graphic below shows the current position of the trough / tropical wave and the area being affected by thunderstorms.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal Weakening

Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened since the last post. Conditions are no longer good for development. Winds are down to 40 mph and Chantal may, in fact, no longer even have closed circulation. A hunter aircraft is en route to examine the storm. As of 8:00 AM Chantal is moving west at 29 mph. The projected path of Chantal is unchanged, crossing Hispaniola lengthwise and part of Cuba, then turning sharply right and heading up the east coast of Florida, however it will likely be only a tropical depression by the time it reaches Cuba and may dissipate before reaching Florida.

Learn more about hurricanes here.

Keep an eye on tropical weather here.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal

The region of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa, mentioned in the previous post, experienced good conditions for development. Rotation and closed circulation developed quickly and the system is now making winds over 40 MPH. Further development is expected.

Tropical storm Chantal is heading WNW at 26 MPH. The forecast track takes this storm over the Lesser Antilles, then over Hispaniola, Cuba, and then turning right towards Florida.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Tropical Activity on July 6, 2013

On the Atlantic side are two areas of interest. West of Africa there's a region of disorganized thunderstorms with conditions reasonably good for rotation and further development, so this needs to be watched. The large region of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico that has been there for days continues strong activity but remains disinclined to rotate.

The outflow from the system in the Gulf of Mexico is heading north over the United States where it's causing significant amounts of rain. This can be seen in the moisture graphic below.

Over on the Pacific side we have the remnant depression of Dalila, still making 30 to 40 mph winds, and Erick, which became a hurricane this morning. The outflow and rainbands from both Hurricane Erick and the system in the Gulf are producing rain and thunderstorm activity in Guatemala.

Learn about hurricanes by taking the Hurricane Quiz on Maya Paradise.

Friday, July 5, 2013

Three Weather Systems of Interest

There are three weather systems affecting Guatemala right now. Tropical Storm Erick and the remnant low of Dalila are over the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico. The third system is a large region of thunderstorms located over the Northern Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico. The system over the Yucatan has persisted for several days while gradually drifting west. At the present time, this third system is not expected to develop further.

All three of these systems are lofting lots of warm moist air into the upper atmosphere, some of which is causing rain over Guatemala and Southern Mexico. A lot of this warm, moist outflow is traveling northeast across the southeastern states of the United States where it is causing rains and flooding.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Possible Area of Development

A broad area of low pressure, shown in the graphic below, is producing thunderstorms that could develop further if conditions allow.  However, conditions are not good for for development right now due to the winds aloft. This system is moving slowly west towards the Gulf of Mexico.