Monday, November 4, 2013

Not Much But Something

The Caribbean has been quiet this year with most cyclone activity taking place in the Pacific, west of Mexico. However, today there is a region of disorganized thunderstorms centered just southwest of Hispaniola. NHC gives this system a very small chance, less than ten percent, of developing as it drifts westward.

Friday, October 11, 2013

T-Storms in the Atlantic

That large region of disorganized thunderstorms WSW of the Cape Verde Islands is still there and still presents a possibility for development. NHC is giving a 40 percent chance of development into a cyclone over the next couple of days. Conditions for development will become worse on Saturday because of increasing upper-level winds. The system is moving WNW at 10 mph.

Monday, October 7, 2013

Karen Dissipated, New Atlantic Activity

Tropical Storm Karen, discussed in the preceding posts, weakened and dissipated before reaching land, bringing some heavy rain to the southeastern US.

Today there are two areas of activity in the Atlantic, shown in the graphic below. The region northeast of Hispaniola is too far north to be of concern to Caribbean interests, but the region southwest of the Cape Verde islands could become a problem. This second system is an area of disorganized thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and is moving WNW at 10 mph. A 20 to 30 percent chance of development over the next five days is forecast by the NHC.

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen Losing Steam

Tropical Storm Karen, discussed in the preceding posts, has lost strength and is holding to a course more northerly than forecast. As of 10:30 AM EDT, Karen's location was 27.9°N 91.7°W, moving north at 7 mph. Minimum central pressure was 1008 mb and max sustained winds were 40 mph. Heavy rains are, of course, still possible in the affected areas.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen Headed for Louisiana

Tropical Storm Karen continues on its forecast path. Karen is presently moving NNW (330 degrees) at about 10 mph and is expected to gradually turn to the right towards the Louisiana / Mississippi coast. Karen's location as of 8:00 AM EDT was 25.2°N 90.0°W, making sustained winds of 60 mph or 95 kmh. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight. Karen should be near the coasts of LA and MS Saturday evening.

The graphics below show Tropical Storm Karen's position and forecast tropical wind field probabilities.

Hurricane watches are in effect for:
* Grand Isle Louisiana to west of Destin, Florida

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for:
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River

Tropical storm watches are in effect for:
* West of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Destin to Indian Pass, Florida

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen

The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous two posts has developed into a tropical storm. Instead of crossing Belize and the Yucatan, the system took a more northerly course, keeping the system over water and allowing for rapid development.

Minimum central pressure is still fairly high at 1004 mb yet this storm is making sustained 60 mph winds.  Present location is 22.0°N 87.6°W and Karen is moving NNW at 13 mph. Computer models indicate landfall east of the Mississippi delta as a hurricane. See graphics below:

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Disturbance in Northwest Caribbean

The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous post has moved northwest into the northwest Caribbean. It is now expected to move north or north northwest towards the Yucatan and is less likely to affect Guatemala and Belize. Further development is unlikely until it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Rain Coming and Maybe More

The disturbance described in the previous post continues in the Caribbean, east of Honduras. It is a broad region of low pressure and thunderstorms, and continues to move slowly northwest. Development will be slow and it probably won't become a cyclone until it crosses Guatemala / Belize / Yucatan and gets into the Gulf of Mexico. As it passes, this system could bring heavy rain to Guatemala.

Monday, September 30, 2013

Something to Watch

For the past two weeks, things have been quiet in the Caribbean. Now there is a low with a large area of disorganized thunderstorms south of Jamaica as shown in the graphic below. This system is moving slowly northwest. It remains disorganized with no sign of rotation. Further development, if any, will be slow.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Mexico Getting Hit on Both Sides

Out in the Atlantic, northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, the remnant of Tropical Storm Humberto has degenerated and is no longer a proper cyclone, The system still has plenty of energy and is still rotating but at present is only making tropical force winds in one quadrant. It is moving west and conditions are good for regeneration into a cyclone but this system is too far north to be of concern to the Caribbean.

In the Gulf of Mexico, Ingrid has moved north and has become a hurricane making 65 knot winds. Hurricane warnings are up from Cabo Rojo to La Pesca. Hurricane Ingrid may strengthen a bit more before coming ashore tomorrow. Ten to fifteen inches of rain may fall over much of eastern Mexico.

On the Pacific side, Tropical Storm Manuel is coming ashore near Manzanillo bringing heavy rain and the chance of flooding and mud slides. Manuel is making 55 knot winds.

The graphic below shows the tropical wind probabilities for Manuel and Ingrid.

Google Doodle for Día de Independencia 2013

Saturday, September 14, 2013

A Surprise in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Humberto is weakening as it moves north. In fact Humberto was just downgraded to an post-tropical cyclone with winds less than 35 knots.

Off the Pacific coast of Mexico we have a new tropical storm, Manuel, shown in the second graphic below. Tropical Storm Manuel is making 45 knot winds and is moving north.

The surprise is Tropical Storm Ingrid. Ingrid was expected to move ashore and weaken but this cyclone stalled over warm Gulf water and in a pretty good environment for development. Ingrid is almost a hurricane, now making 60 knot winds. This system was moving west towards the Mexican coast but has now changed direction. Ingrid is now moving north at 8 mph, so we haven't heard the last of this one by any means. Ingrid is expected to bring very heavy rain, on the order of 10 to 15 inches, to eastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm (almost hurricane) Ingrid:
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W

Wednesday, September 11, 2013

All As Expected

Weather in the Atlantic is developing as forecast in the previous post. Hurricane Humberto has become the first hurricane of this season in the eastern Atlantic. Humberto is making 75 MPH winds and appears to have already made its turn to the right, now heading NNW, so it is no longer of any concern to those in the Caribbean.  Gabrielle remains steady and is dropping lots of rain on Bermuda.

The large region of thunderstorms east of Belize continues as expected. It should move over land today bringing heavy rain and some wind to Belize, Eastern Guatemala, and the Yucatan. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche, conditions should be good for probable development into a cyclone.

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

More Rain for Eastern Guatemala

Three areas of of interest are active in the Atlantic, as shown in the graphic below.  TS Gabrielle is making 35 kt winds and is moving north, so is of no concern to the Caribbean. TS Humberto is almost a hurricane and is strengthening. It's expected to become a hurricane later today. Humberto is moving WNW and could become a dangerous hurricane if it doesn't turn north before reaching the Caribbean.

In the Northwest Caribbean there's a large area of disorganized thunderstorms. This system is moving west and is not expected to develop significantly before reaching the Yucatan Peninsula. After crossing the Yucatan and reaching the Gulf of Mexico, development into a cyclone is probable. While crossing the peninsula, this system should bring rain and thunderstorms to Northern Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan.

Thursday, September 5, 2013

There's plenty of activity in the Atlantic right now but none of it is strong.

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is making 35 knot winds and is generating large amounts of rain as it moves slowly northwest across Hispaniola. Gabrielle is rotating but is disorganized. Development, if any, should be slow and hampered by moving across the island.

To the east of Gabrielle is a large area of disorganized thunderstorms whose development is hindered by proximity to TS Gabrielle.

In the Gulf of Mexico there is a low pressure trough that could strengthen a little before it moves over mainland Mexico. For now, this system is bringing rainshowers to the Yucatan, Mexico, and parts of Central America.

West of the Cape Verde Islands is another region of disorganized thunderstorms but development is unlikely. In another day or so, environmental conditions will become very poor for development.

Friday, August 16, 2013

No Rotation Yet

The region of disorganized thunderstorms in the western Caribbean, discussed in the preceding posts, continues moving northwest and has not yet developed any rotation. The heavy rains of the system occur in the east and northeast quarters of the system, therefore, the heaviest rains missed Belize and Guatemala, most of it falling at sea. However, the Yucatan is receiving some heavy rain from this system.

Development of this system depends on what direction it moves. If it moves more towards the west it has little or no chance to develop. If it moves north it has a better chance to develop but any development should be slow.

The system that formed south of the Cape Verde Islands became a Tropical Storm Erin but has since weakened and lost organization, and is now a tropical depression.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

Further Development is Happening

The disturbance discussed in my previous post is developing further. It continues to move northwest towards the Yucatan. A distinct low is developing in the center of the highlighted region north of Honduras and upper level winds are favorable for additional development. NHC now gives a 50% chance that this system develops into a cyclone within the next three days and a 60% chance in the next five days. Folks in Belize, the Yucatan, and around the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on this system.

The second system shown on the graphic, south of the Cape Verde Islands, has a high chance of development.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Tropical Disturbance East of Honduras

The region east of Honduras currently harbors some interesting conditions. There is a broad area of low pressure combined with a tropical wave.  This is resulting in showers and thundershowers.  Conditions for development are expected to improve so this areas bears watching as it moves slowly to the northwest toward the Yucatan.  Coincidentally, this is the same area where Hurricane Mitch formed.  The NHC is giving this system a 30% chance of development into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

To learn more about hurricanes see Hurricane Basics

Monday, July 29, 2013

Disturbance North of Puerto Rico

The remnants of Tropical Storm Dorian now form a region of disorganized thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.  There's no closed circulation and conditions are not very good for development. Some of the t-storms are generating winds up to gale force.  A hurricane reconnaisance aircraft may be sent this afternoon to examine the area more closely.  NHC forecasts the chance of this system becoming a tropical storm within the next 48 hours at less than 50%.

Friday, July 12, 2013

Remnant of Chantal Still Storming

Tropical Storm Chantal lost circulation and degenerated into a surface trough but continues to produce thunderstorms and locally strong winds. Conditions are not bad for redevelopment and there is a 30 percent chance that Chantal comes back to life. The graphic below shows the current position of the trough / tropical wave and the area being affected by thunderstorms.

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal Weakening

Tropical Storm Chantal has weakened since the last post. Conditions are no longer good for development. Winds are down to 40 mph and Chantal may, in fact, no longer even have closed circulation. A hunter aircraft is en route to examine the storm. As of 8:00 AM Chantal is moving west at 29 mph. The projected path of Chantal is unchanged, crossing Hispaniola lengthwise and part of Cuba, then turning sharply right and heading up the east coast of Florida, however it will likely be only a tropical depression by the time it reaches Cuba and may dissipate before reaching Florida.

Learn more about hurricanes here.

Keep an eye on tropical weather here.

Monday, July 8, 2013

Tropical Storm Chantal

The region of thunderstorms off the coast of Africa, mentioned in the previous post, experienced good conditions for development. Rotation and closed circulation developed quickly and the system is now making winds over 40 MPH. Further development is expected.

Tropical storm Chantal is heading WNW at 26 MPH. The forecast track takes this storm over the Lesser Antilles, then over Hispaniola, Cuba, and then turning right towards Florida.

Saturday, July 6, 2013

Tropical Activity on July 6, 2013

On the Atlantic side are two areas of interest. West of Africa there's a region of disorganized thunderstorms with conditions reasonably good for rotation and further development, so this needs to be watched. The large region of thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico that has been there for days continues strong activity but remains disinclined to rotate.

The outflow from the system in the Gulf of Mexico is heading north over the United States where it's causing significant amounts of rain. This can be seen in the moisture graphic below.

Over on the Pacific side we have the remnant depression of Dalila, still making 30 to 40 mph winds, and Erick, which became a hurricane this morning. The outflow and rainbands from both Hurricane Erick and the system in the Gulf are producing rain and thunderstorm activity in Guatemala.

Learn about hurricanes by taking the Hurricane Quiz on Maya Paradise.

Friday, July 5, 2013

Three Weather Systems of Interest

There are three weather systems affecting Guatemala right now. Tropical Storm Erick and the remnant low of Dalila are over the Pacific off the west coast of Mexico. The third system is a large region of thunderstorms located over the Northern Yucatan and Gulf of Mexico. The system over the Yucatan has persisted for several days while gradually drifting west. At the present time, this third system is not expected to develop further.

All three of these systems are lofting lots of warm moist air into the upper atmosphere, some of which is causing rain over Guatemala and Southern Mexico. A lot of this warm, moist outflow is traveling northeast across the southeastern states of the United States where it is causing rains and flooding.

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Possible Area of Development

A broad area of low pressure, shown in the graphic below, is producing thunderstorms that could develop further if conditions allow.  However, conditions are not good for for development right now due to the winds aloft. This system is moving slowly west towards the Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

The End of TD2 (Probably)

Tropical Depression 2 moved out over the Bay of Campeche where the warm water allowed it to strengthen slightly. As I write this, TD2 is making 30 knot winds, gusting to 40 kts. The system continues to move northwest and is about to move onto mainland Mexico where it will likely disintegrate.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Heavy Rains Over Guatemala

The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous post developed into a tropical depression before moving inland across Belize and over Northeastern Guatemala. The system is expected to move west-northwest very slowly so there's the possibility of a lot more rain for Guatemala, Belize, and Southeastern Mexico. It is not expected to strengthen as a cyclone as long as it remains over land so high winds are not expected except possible local strong thunderstorm winds.

Tropical Depression Two
Learn more about tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Possible Storm Forming Near Guatemala

A tropical wave is triggering activity off the eastern tip of Honduras. This system bears watching as there is a possibility that it develops further.

Learn more about hurricanes.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Tropical Storm Andrea

In just 24 hours, a disorganized group of thunderstorms southwest of Florida has organized and developed into Tropical Storm Andrea, with winds up to 60 knots (69 mph) -- almost into hurricane territory.  Andrea is moving NNE at 12 knots and the projected path and wind probabilities are shown in the NHC graphic below.  A moderate storm surge of around 3 feet is possible along the coast to either side of the point of landfall.

Learn more about hurricanes.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Hurricane Season Has Commenced

We're off to a possible start to the season here with a region of disorganized thunderstorms southwest of Florida. Circulation is poor but NHC gives it a 50 percent chance of developing further.

Brush up on your knowledge of hurricanes here.

Saturday, June 1, 2013

Hurricane Season is Here

It's that time of year again.

The Maya Paradise weather page brings everything together on one page here:

Test your basic knowledge of hurricanes here:

Hurricane Basics

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Quizzes Now Smartphone Compatible

The Maya Paradise quizzes / tutorials are now Android and iPhone compatible with resizing text and bigger buttons.  Answers can now be selected by touching any part of the answer, not just the tiny radiobutton next to the answer.

Test your knowledge of Volcanoes, Mayan Civilization, or Guatemalan history and culture.

Maya Paradise Quizzes

Monday, January 21, 2013

Volcano Quiz and Photos Added

Test your knowledge of volcanoes!  A new quiz covering the basics of volcanoes has been added.

All quizzes are now equipped with photos that help the learning process.

Check it out: Maya Paradise Quizzes

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Expert Level Quiz Added

For those who love Guatemala and wish to test their knowledge and/or learn more about Guatemala, it's history, and customs, there are now three quizzes: Basic, Advanced, and Expert.

If you like them, please share a link to the quiz index page with your friends.

Monday, January 7, 2013

New Features on Maya Paradise

Two new features are now live on Maya Paradise.

Foods from the Americas highlights the many foods brought from the Americas to Europe, which now enrich the lives of every human on the planet.

For those who want to test their knowledge of Guatemala, a Quiz Section has been added. The first quiz covers basic knowledge that a visitor to Guatemala should have.  More quizzes are under construction.  Suggestions are welcome!