Thursday, October 28, 2010

Small Local Thunderstorm and Activity in the Atlantic

This time of year the air is very unstable and there's almost always a chance of rain or thunderstorm.  This morning we have a small local thunderstorm bringing rain to eastern Izabal.  It's the only t-storm in Guatemala this morning.  It should clear up later today and we should have very little precipitation for the next four days.

Of greater interest are three active areas out in the Atlantic.  The areas marked 1 and 2 almost certainly too far north to bother us in Guatemala.  But number 3 is interesting.

Most of the cyclones that affect us in eastern Guatemala at this time of year form quite close to us in the area east of Nicaragua.  Cyclones have a tendency to turn right and for most of the hurricane season storms that form far east of us usually turn right and head north long before they reach us.  But at this time of year, late in the season, air currents and fronts are such that they can force a storm to remain to the south.  A storm that forms far south where number 3 is located can come west, all the way to Guatemala, without curving to the right and going north.  So we should keep an eye on the disturbance at number 3 in the graphic below.