Thursday, October 21, 2010

Hurricane Richard?

The last three posts have discussed the mass of convective storms in our area here in the western Caribbean.  Steering currents at this time of year are complex and confused and this system has been staggering like a drunk in the region northeast of Honduras.  It was headed generally north and northeast, taking it farther away from us, but it made a 180 degree turn to the right, coming south again.  It has also strengthened and become Tropical Depresson 19.

TD19 is in warm water and conditions are good for development.  Outflow is already well developed and the system is expected to strengthen rapidly.  There is wide disagreement amongst the various computer models forecasting the track for this system but for the time being the highest probability track is shown in the graphic below.