Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Developing Tropical Storm -- and Some Humor

This is the system discussed in the previous post.  Its movement changed from WNW to North so most of the system remained over water and it has developed quite nicely.  It will likely become a TD tonight.  Fortunately for us, it is moving north, taking it further away from us here in eastern Guatemala.  We are also now in the third quadrant of the storm which means we will likely see no effects whatsoever from this storm unless it changes course.

Speaking of changing course, I find the following graphic very humorous.  Depicted are the track forecasts for the above system generated by the various weather modeling and prediction systems.  Most of the time, these models are generally in agreement.  But as you can see, this is not the case for the above storm.  This illustrates the extreme complexity and chaotic behavior that occurs this time of year in this part of the Caribbean.  We have the trades, the convergence zone, tropical waves, unstable air, and now fronts from the north all colliding in our region.  Weather forecasting in the convergence zone is always dicey and at this time of year one can really only make general statements.  A gypsy fortune teller could probably produce forecasts as well as anyone.

Some Disagreement Amongst the Computer Models ?!
(Click to view larger)