Monday, October 11, 2010

We Got Lucky Again, Probably

As soon as Tropical Storm Paula got over the water it changed course to NW.  If that course holds we'll probably see few effects here in Rio Dulce because we'll be in the third and fourth quadrants of the storm.

Bingo! Tropical Storm Paula

Well there it is as expected, Tropical Storm Paula.  This storm is expected to become Hurricane Paula rather  quickly.

The confused movement of Tropical Storm Paula.
Click to view larger.

Rain This Afternoon

The clouds that are over Rio Dulce right now are associated with the disturbance mentioned in the last two posts.  Wind is picking up, pressure falling.  I expect it will start raining sooner rather than later, probably in the next hour or two. Might this become Tropical Storm Paula?

Rotation of the system is increasing.  The center of the disturbance is still over land and should come over water again by this evening.  Rapid development is possible because conditions are pretty good and outflow is already well established.  The storm is close to us, developing right in our area, so stay tuned for further notices.

I find it interesting that yesterday's sunrise was very red and I thought about this:

"Red sky at morning,
   sailorman's warning.
Red sky at night,
   sailor's delight."

Rain By Tonight

The system shown in the previous post is not yet a cyclone, it's barely rotating, but it looks pretty organized to me and it has strong convection and good outflow.  NOAA and the Hurricane Center say nothing about eastern Guatemala, just rain in Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.  The official forecast for Puerto Barrios shows nothing over the next five days.

I disagree.  The system has distinct rain bands, is moving directly towards us, and it looks to me like those rain bands will start to affect us here in Rio Dulce / Puerto Barrios by around 6:00 PM tonight (Monday night), if not sooner.

Slowly Developing System

Below is a closer view of the system mentioned in the previous post.  It continues to develop slowly and move west-northwest.  The center of the system in this photo is located about 60 miles southeast of the point where the Honduras-Nicaragua border reaches the coast.