Thursday, September 23, 2010

Tropical Storm Matthew

There's a lot of convective energy in the area where TD 15 formed so it didn't take long to become Tropical Storm Matthew.

See previous post for details.

Tropical Depression 15 is Coming

As discussed and forecast in the previous three posts as this feature developed, we now have Tropical Depression 15.  It is expected to reach hurricane strength by the time it makes closest approach to us.  Latest track and strength forecast is shown below:

Cyclone Probability Now at 80 Percent

The region circled in red and marked 60% on the graphic in the previous post is now at 80% probability for formation of a cyclone.  This area is associated with a vigorous low, plenty of unstable moisture over a wide area, and a wave.