Friday, October 29, 2010

Tomas Looks Like Trouble

The large system which has become Tropical Storm Tomas I've been watching closely for the past few days.  The outflow pattern is a little strange but this system has all the makings of big trouble so we need to keep an eye on it.  It's large, it's developing fast, conditions are good, there's plenty of hot water to fuel it, it's far south, and it's moving west.

Cyclones that form that far to the east of Guatemala usually curve right and head north long before they reach us.  However, at this time of year, at the end of the hurricane season, steering currents and fronts can conspire to prevent a cyclone from following its natural tendency to turn right.  The storm can continue to come west all the way to Central America.  What's more, this system formed far to the south to begin with, which increases the chance of what I just mentioned above.

We'll just have to see what it does.

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