Friday, June 25, 2010

2010 Hurricane Season Starting Strong

Despite sea surface temperatures only in the low to mid-80s, we have seen that upper level wind shear and other factors are producing conditions that are very conducive to cyclone formation.

Right now in the Eastern Pacific we have Category 5 Hurricane Celia located southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Baja California. Celia is moving west so is not a threat to land. Right behind Celia and following roughly the same track is Category 2 Hurricane Darby, located about 400 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, also moving west. Darby is bringing rain to southwestern Mexico but is not a serious threat to land.

Directly off the Pacific coast of Guatemala and El Salvador is an area of low pressure and strong disorganized thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours. This system poses an increased rain threat to Guatemala as it is moving very slowly west northwest at only 10 miles per hour. Conred has issued an Orange Alert regarding this system.

Of interest to eastern Guatemala, there is activity on the Atlantic side. Off the northeast tip of Honduras is a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and falling barometric pressure. The National Hurricane Centers gives a 70 percent chance of a cyclone developing from this system. Most computer models are projecting cyclone development and eventual landfall in the Yucatan but we need to keep a close eye on this one. And there a large area of disorganized thunderstorms located about 600 miles east of Puerto Rico, moving slowly WNW. NHC is giving only a 10 percent chance of cyclone formation in this system during the next 48 hours

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