Monday, November 4, 2013

Not Much But Something

The Caribbean has been quiet this year with most cyclone activity taking place in the Pacific, west of Mexico. However, today there is a region of disorganized thunderstorms centered just southwest of Hispaniola. NHC gives this system a very small chance, less than ten percent, of developing as it drifts westward.

Friday, October 11, 2013

T-Storms in the Atlantic

That large region of disorganized thunderstorms WSW of the Cape Verde Islands is still there and still presents a possibility for development. NHC is giving a 40 percent chance of development into a cyclone over the next couple of days. Conditions for development will become worse on Saturday because of increasing upper-level winds. The system is moving WNW at 10 mph.

Monday, October 7, 2013

Karen Dissipated, New Atlantic Activity

Tropical Storm Karen, discussed in the preceding posts, weakened and dissipated before reaching land, bringing some heavy rain to the southeastern US.

Today there are two areas of activity in the Atlantic, shown in the graphic below. The region northeast of Hispaniola is too far north to be of concern to Caribbean interests, but the region southwest of the Cape Verde islands could become a problem. This second system is an area of disorganized thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and is moving WNW at 10 mph. A 20 to 30 percent chance of development over the next five days is forecast by the NHC.

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen Losing Steam

Tropical Storm Karen, discussed in the preceding posts, has lost strength and is holding to a course more northerly than forecast. As of 10:30 AM EDT, Karen's location was 27.9°N 91.7°W, moving north at 7 mph. Minimum central pressure was 1008 mb and max sustained winds were 40 mph. Heavy rains are, of course, still possible in the affected areas.

Friday, October 4, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen Headed for Louisiana

Tropical Storm Karen continues on its forecast path. Karen is presently moving NNW (330 degrees) at about 10 mph and is expected to gradually turn to the right towards the Louisiana / Mississippi coast. Karen's location as of 8:00 AM EDT was 25.2°N 90.0°W, making sustained winds of 60 mph or 95 kmh. Minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight. Karen should be near the coasts of LA and MS Saturday evening.

The graphics below show Tropical Storm Karen's position and forecast tropical wind field probabilities.

Hurricane watches are in effect for:
* Grand Isle Louisiana to west of Destin, Florida

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for:
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River

Tropical storm watches are in effect for:
* West of Grand Isle to east of Morgan City, Louisiana
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Destin to Indian Pass, Florida

Thursday, October 3, 2013

Tropical Storm Karen

The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous two posts has developed into a tropical storm. Instead of crossing Belize and the Yucatan, the system took a more northerly course, keeping the system over water and allowing for rapid development.

Minimum central pressure is still fairly high at 1004 mb yet this storm is making sustained 60 mph winds.  Present location is 22.0°N 87.6°W and Karen is moving NNW at 13 mph. Computer models indicate landfall east of the Mississippi delta as a hurricane. See graphics below:

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Disturbance in Northwest Caribbean

The tropical disturbance discussed in the previous post has moved northwest into the northwest Caribbean. It is now expected to move north or north northwest towards the Yucatan and is less likely to affect Guatemala and Belize. Further development is unlikely until it reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Rain Coming and Maybe More

The disturbance described in the previous post continues in the Caribbean, east of Honduras. It is a broad region of low pressure and thunderstorms, and continues to move slowly northwest. Development will be slow and it probably won't become a cyclone until it crosses Guatemala / Belize / Yucatan and gets into the Gulf of Mexico. As it passes, this system could bring heavy rain to Guatemala.

Monday, September 30, 2013

Something to Watch

For the past two weeks, things have been quiet in the Caribbean. Now there is a low with a large area of disorganized thunderstorms south of Jamaica as shown in the graphic below. This system is moving slowly northwest. It remains disorganized with no sign of rotation. Further development, if any, will be slow.

Sunday, September 15, 2013

Mexico Getting Hit on Both Sides

Out in the Atlantic, northwest of the Cape Verde Islands, the remnant of Tropical Storm Humberto has degenerated and is no longer a proper cyclone, The system still has plenty of energy and is still rotating but at present is only making tropical force winds in one quadrant. It is moving west and conditions are good for regeneration into a cyclone but this system is too far north to be of concern to the Caribbean.

In the Gulf of Mexico, Ingrid has moved north and has become a hurricane making 65 knot winds. Hurricane warnings are up from Cabo Rojo to La Pesca. Hurricane Ingrid may strengthen a bit more before coming ashore tomorrow. Ten to fifteen inches of rain may fall over much of eastern Mexico.

On the Pacific side, Tropical Storm Manuel is coming ashore near Manzanillo bringing heavy rain and the chance of flooding and mud slides. Manuel is making 55 knot winds.

The graphic below shows the tropical wind probabilities for Manuel and Ingrid.

Google Doodle for Día de Independencia 2013

Saturday, September 14, 2013

A Surprise in the Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Storm Humberto is weakening as it moves north. In fact Humberto was just downgraded to an post-tropical cyclone with winds less than 35 knots.

Off the Pacific coast of Mexico we have a new tropical storm, Manuel, shown in the second graphic below. Tropical Storm Manuel is making 45 knot winds and is moving north.

The surprise is Tropical Storm Ingrid. Ingrid was expected to move ashore and weaken but this cyclone stalled over warm Gulf water and in a pretty good environment for development. Ingrid is almost a hurricane, now making 60 knot winds. This system was moving west towards the Mexican coast but has now changed direction. Ingrid is now moving north at 8 mph, so we haven't heard the last of this one by any means. Ingrid is expected to bring very heavy rain, on the order of 10 to 15 inches, to eastern Mexico.

Tropical Storm (almost hurricane) Ingrid:
LOCATION...20.6N 94.5W